A previsão dos bancos é de dois anos de contração econômica para o Brasil.
Last Friday, Credit Suisse’s economist Nelson Teixeira put out a note revising his forecast for Brazilian GDP this year to -2.4% from an already bleak -1.8%.
Brazilian central bank’s weekly Focus survey points out that the country’s biggest banks are all bearish. Only Banco Santander Brasil is bullish, by a hole basis point. They expect a 1.9% contraction this year and a 0.1% gain in GDP next year.
If things continue in Brasilia the way they are with tax cut reversals and political crises, they are sure to lower Brazilian expectations as the latest FGV consumers’ confidence index revealed.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s two biggest private banks are expecting a prolonged recession. Itau is forecasting a 2.2% contraction this year and 0.2% contraction in 2016. Its rival, Bradesco, sees the Brazilian economy dropping 1.8% this year and flat-lining next year.
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